North Korea announce imminent nuclear test, UN is having none of it.

[Pestcontrol]

Dug the news some more, Russia estimates 5-15kt, South Korea says ~0.55kt, definitely less than 1kt, France also says <1kt. North Korean state news (for what it's worth) says no radiation was leaked whatsoever.
Nuclear vs. conventional explosions should be distinguishable at closer distances, but South Korea hasn't made a statement on that yet.

It's a mixed bag.

It's entirely possible NK is bluffing as a cheap way to get themselves some credit in negotiations.

From a technical point of view ~20kt bombs are the simplest to make, but require more material than a smaller bomb. The last series of underground tests were in India and then Pakistan, with yields up to about 25kt.

 

[Gopha]

All shall be revealed later. Its quite scary though when you think about it, at any stage in our lives a Nuclear war could be imminent , Not saying there will be but there is always a possibilty, after you have a new toy you cant just leave it in the box and look at it, soon you will want to use it......



Edit: Also if it did come to *clean* combat then N Korea would wipe the floor with the south Koreans. Their basic training involves 3 martial arts and they have the fifth largest army in the world

 

[pHatBambi]

Hmm I do not think that South Korea would be alone if they were attacked. Plus there is a lot to be said for technological advantage. I do not know who has the superior tech out of the two countries.

I'm also of the impression that N Korea would not want to start a war with the South as they are helping to feed millions of North Korean civilians.

 

[Gibsonfire]

It was just one KT. Are they bluffing?

I'm not sure but even at 1KT it can be classified as a 'Tactical' nuclear weapon

 

[Ronin Storm]

Results are all disagreeing. Some guys who are updating Wikipedia seem to think 5 to 15 KT.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_yield

 

[Pestcontrol]

To add to the confusion it also matters how it is detonated underground. If detonated in a cave the seismic reading would be less than were it detonated in a shaft like regular underground tests.

The estimate is NK has enough material for about 6 bombs, it would make a difference if those were 1kt bombs or 20kt ones.

As for a war, NK is completely dependent on China and South Korea for it's resources, most importantly oil and food. They'd cause a lot of destruction but starting a war also seals Kim's fate, and every dictator's primary objective is to stay in power.

 

[Taffy]

[*]This means that eventually all countries who are able will probably have nukes at some point in the not-too distant future... But I must admit North Korea having them could be a problem.[/LIST]

Along with a host of other countries...

Giving some countries nuclear weapons would be like giving a ten year old BF2 addict an M16 with 2,000 rounds of live ammo. You just know it's gonna get messy.

Then again, I doubt that NK will ever use their nuclear arsenal. They have one missile, the Yanks have enough to wipe out the world three times over. Bit of a lose-lose for NK then.

This test is just another show-off, like their annual military marches. Just a show of power, a flex of the muscles, trying to keep NK in the game.

Frankly, i'm not too concerned about my safety. The balance of power is tipped firmly to our advantage.

 

[Fi$hy]

There's no balance in MAD

 

[Pestcontrol]

There's no balance in MAD

But there's balance (or rather: credit) in negotiations.

Thinking about it, there's some balance in MAD. Nukes make mad madder. Attacking NK may have been a last resort in the past, where it may no longer be an option now.

 

[Gibsonfire]

Along with a host of other countries...

Giving some countries nuclear weapons would be like giving a ten year old BF2 addict an M16 with 2,000 rounds of live ammo. You just know it's gonna get messy.

Then again, I doubt that NK will ever use their nuclear arsenal. They have one missile, the Yanks have enough to wipe out the world three times over. Bit of a lose-lose for NK then.

This test is just another show-off, like their annual military marches. Just a show of power, a flex of the muscles, trying to keep NK in the game.

Frankly, i'm not too concerned about my safety. The balance of power is tipped firmly to our advantage.

Yes but 6 nukes could wipe large amounts of populations in certain areas and thats what everyone does not want, they are not going to target us and yes we could nuke em to smitherins, but we would never strike first and so by the time we retaliate against them, thousands if not millions could be dead and that would be the worst case scenario.

 

[Haven]

An interesting article in the NYT I just read (subscription sign up may be required). Sums up the worries fo the US quite nicely:

North Korea is more than just another nation joining the nuclear club. It has never developed a weapons system it did not ultimately sell on the world market, and it has periodically threatened to sell its nuclear technology. So the end of ambiguity about its nuclear capacity foreshadows a very different era, in which the concern may not be where a nation’s warheads are aimed, but in whose hands its weapons and skill end up.

 

[Tetsuo_Shima]

Precisely what I was trying to point out earlier in the thread - selling them on will not only provide (vast) profits for a regime dependent on aid, but will also put the weapons in the hands of a nation/cell/organization who would ultimately use it to take out the same target anyway, without fingering N. Korea (directly).

Also, one of North Korea's main business ventures happens to be military hardware - sneaking out a single nuclear warhead encased in a missile, when accompanied by hundreds of conventional warhead missiles, could be an easier task than you would be led to believe. North Korea have obtained a vast amount of military hardware and expertise from Russia, after the fall of the eastern bloc (notably the Russian RADUGA missile system, nuclear capable, or so I'm led to believe).

 

[Ronin Storm]

sneaking out a single nuclear warhead encased in a missile, when accompanied by hundreds of conventional warhead missiles, could be an easier task than you would be led to believe.

Given any border control at all, the detection of radiological material in warheads really can't be that hard. Even given a thousand warheads, just sweep your Geiger counter over them all and watch for the one that spikes... it doesn't even have to be spiking much to indicate that there's a gamma emissions source inside this particular missile.

(Hmm, actually, you're supposed to use a sodium iodide scintillation counter for detecting gamma radiation, according to Wikipedia's article on Geiger counters...)

 

[Tetsuo_Shima]

But remember, "than you would be led to believe". Lets assume North Korea did try and sell nuclear warheads to ... off the top of my head, an Iranian movement. The sale would be government controlled, and would probably be under the guise of, lets say, a shipment of 35 frigate-launched conventional guided missiles. There probably wouldn't even be any need to mention a specific customer, though that part could be fixed anyway.
Under government control, it wouldnt be the hardest of tasks to transport the missiles via cargo plane, truck etc. to a N. Korean dock, where the shipment is transfered to a civilian freighter and sailed to Iran. Most of the seas between Korea and Iran are controlled by allies to either party, or at least by nations sympathetic to the cause. It all sounds too simple when i write it down, but the world's a big place after all.

 

[Pestcontrol]

I think it's unlikely such a shipment would ever arrive, i don't think China would tolerate NK arms deals, just like they're emberrassed by the nuclear test, and in any case the shipment would lead past Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, India and Pakistan, Pro-Western nations. Then also through international waters. NK is pretty much locked in.

Not long ago a civillian freighter was detained by Cyprus containing military equipment for Syria, i forgot where it had loaded the cargo.

As for the nuke, a figure i'm hearing more and more is several hundred kiloton, and preliminary US information says it was not a nuclear explosion.

 

[Tetsuo_Shima]

I think you would have to make the assumption that it was nuclear, rather than think it wasn't and be caught by surprise. Not that i mean you should invade because you believe they have nuclear weapons, but it would be wise to take some kind of precaution.

 

[DocBot]

take some kind of precaution.

Funny you should mention that, I believe that's what they doing, according to themselves....

 

[Taffy]

Ah yes, that old chesnut. 'Protection' eh? SURE...

They are just giving America a poke in the ribs and saying 'We are still here! HAHA!' Except this time, they poked with a pitchfork...

 

[DocBot]

...yes, obviously only the JUST and KIND and BRAVE countries have a need for protection/nukes.

...right?

 

[Tetsuo_Shima]

Right. Somebody, somewhere has to keep the peace. If everyone was equal (i.e. everyone had nukes/noone had nukes) I believe we would be far worse off than we are now. 'Nobody has nukes' (or admits to having nukes) leads to paranoia, underground movements etc. Everyone has nukes would be incredibly unstable.

Its not the ideal situation, granted, but as long as somebody has a marked advantage, and can keep everyone in check, its the only peace we can have.